Airbnb is collapsing nationally. Could the Poconos be the exception?
350 Operators Gone in Two Years
Coolbaugh Township issued 1,450 short-term rental licenses at its peak in 2023. Today that number is around 1,000. Three hundred and fifty operators quit, sold, or got squeezed out in two years.
Everybody Bought a Cabin
What happened in Coolbaugh happened everywhere across Wayne, Pike, and Monroe Counties, and it tracks almost exactly with what played out nationally. The pandemic sent city people into the mountains. Monroe County Airbnb hosts earned $19 million and welcomed 150,000-plus guests in 2020 and 2021. YouTube filled up with guys in rented Lamborghinis selling $499 courses on “Airbnb arbitrage.” Everybody bought a cabin.
The Listings Doubled. The Guests Didn’t.
Then the listings doubled. Between 2020 and 2023, Pocono STR inventory grew so fast that townships couldn’t process the permit applications. Airbnb-only listings are up 66 percent over three years. But the guests didn’t double. Occupancy dropped 4.3 percent region-wide, and today the typical Pocono rental sits empty more nights than it’s booked. Most townships are running between 29 and 44 percent occupancy. That means your average cabin is earning money maybe 11 to 13 nights a month.
The Bills Got Heavier
Meanwhile the bills got heavier. Mortgage rates hit 7 percent on properties bought at 2021 prices. Airbnb jacked its host service fee from 3 percent to 15.5. Townships started requiring $500,000 insurance policies, annual inspections, and permit fees up to $1,000. One local industry report stopped being polite about it: “Gone are the days of easy money.”
The National Picture Is Worse
Nationally, the damage is worse. Revenue per listing cratered over 40 percent in Austin, Phoenix, and Myrtle Beach between 2022 and 2023. A Nashville host who bought a $620,000 property at 6.99 percent interest is losing $25,000 a year and counting. In Galveston, Texas, 1,300 listings created 20 months of inventory — insurance and taxes both up 40 to 50 percent. In Scottsdale, former Airbnbs are sitting on the market for 100-plus days with six-figure price cuts. Some sellers are eating $600,000 losses just to get out.
Why the Poconos Are Different
The Poconos haven’t hit that level of pain, and they probably won’t. Here’s why.
This region drew 28 million visitors in 2023 and $4.2 billion in spending — both records. The Poconos are a two-hour drive from New York and Philly. Nobody’s buying a plane ticket. When families cut their vacation budget, they don’t stop coming here. They stop going to Florida. Industry people call this “counter-cyclical” — the market actually does better when the economy gets tight, because a weekend in the mountains is the cheap option. Airbtics rates the Poconos B-plus nationally and puts it in the top 5 percent for STR yield.
The Hosts Who Stayed Are Making Money
And the hosts who are still in it are making real money. The top 10 percent of Mount Pocono operators are pulling roughly $166,000 a year. Six-bedroom-plus houses — the “celebration homes” that sleep 15 for a birthday or reunion — book $3,000 to $5,000 a night. Even the median operator in a decent location clears about $44,000 annually, which is above the state average.
The 80/20 Split
But that median number hides an ugly split. Local property managers describe it as 80/20: the top fifth of properties take 80 percent of the rental income. A well-located house with a hot tub, professional photos, and a host who actually responds to messages does fine. An average house with a stale listing and a $400 cleaning fee does not. Fifty to 100 Pocono Airbnbs are for sale at any given time from owners who learned the difference the hard way.
The Rules Keep Changing
The regulatory picture isn’t settling down either. Lehman Township in Pike County froze new licenses entirely — about 200 existing operators are grandfathered in and nobody else gets in. Paradise Township banned STRs from all residential zones. Tobyhanna passed a 12 percent cap on licenses in March 2024, then reversed it a year later after pushback from the vacation rental industry. Pennsylvania is now working on its first statewide framework — House Bill 2303 would create a tiered system with different rules for casual hosts versus corporate operators. Nobody knows yet what that means for existing permits.
So Is There Still Money To Be Made?
So is there still money to be made? If you already own a property outright or bought it cheap, in a township that allows STRs, and you’re willing to run it like an actual business — yes. The data still supports that. But buying a $350,000 cabin at 7 percent interest and expecting Airbnb revenue to cover the mortgage? That bet doesn’t pencil out for most people anymore, and the 350 operators who left Coolbaugh Township are proof.